ICM in plain words
The calculator uses the Malmuth–Harville model, the classic form of ICM. It rests on one assumption: your chance of finishing first equals your share of all the chips.
- First place. With 5,000 of 11,500 chips, you win 43.5% of the time.
- Second place. For each opponent who might win, remove their chips and apply the same rule to who's left. Your chance of second is the sum over all those cases.
- Every lower place repeats the process with one more player removed.
- Value = each place's probability × that place's prize, added up.
It ignores skill, position and blinds — every chip is equally likely to win. That's what makes it neutral enough to settle a deal.
Worked example: four players, three prizes
The calculator's default: stacks 5,000 / 3,000 / 2,000 / 1,500 (11,500 chips), prizes 50 / 30 / 20 (100 in total, so values read as percentages of the pool).
| Player | Chips | Chip share | ICM value | Chip chop would give |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5,000 | 43.5% | 34.72 | 43.48 |
| 2 | 3,000 | 26.1% | 27.28 | 26.09 |
| 3 | 2,000 | 17.4% | 21.19 | 17.39 |
| 4 | 1,500 | 13.0% | 16.81 | 13.04 |
A “chip chop” — splitting by chip share — would hand the leader 43.48 of the 100. ICM says the stack is worth 34.72, because at most it can win 50, and the shortest stack, which has nothing locked up, is still worth 16.81 through its chances of sneaking into third or better.
Heads-up: the shortcut
With two players left, ICM is easy to check by hand. Stacks 9,000 vs 1,000, prizes 70 / 30:
- Both are guaranteed 30 (second prize).
- The remaining 40 is split by chips: 90% → 36 and 10% → 4.
- Result: 66 / 34. The chip leader has 90% of the chips but 66% of the money left.
How club hosts use it
| Situation | What to do |
|---|---|
| It's late and the final table wants to stop | Enter stacks and unpaid prizes; offer the ICM values as the deal |
| Prizes are leaderboard points | Enter the points; award each player their ICM share |
| Only first place matters (one ticket) | Enter a single prize; ICM equals chip share — chips decide |
| Players want to keep something to play for | Deal on all but part of first prize, then play on for the rest |
| A player disputes the split | Show the “Chip share” and “Share of prizes” columns side by side |
Announce the deal rule before the tournament. A line in your Club Notice such as “final-table deals use ICM from clubgg.poker's calculator, all players must agree” removes most arguments before they start.
Limits worth knowing
- ICM assumes equal skill. A much stronger player may reasonably ask for more than their ICM value; that's a negotiation, not maths.
- It ignores who's in the blinds next. In a very short-stacked finish that matters.
- Exact Malmuth–Harville work grows very fast with the number of players; this calculator takes up to nine, one full table.
Deals here are about chips, tickets or points. ClubGG is free play only, and splitting real money is exactly the kind of outside arrangement its terms and Media Guideline rule out. See play money vs real money.
Planning the tournament itself? Start with the blind structure planner, then club tournament settings.
Questions people ask
What does ICM stand for?
Why does the chip leader get less than their chip share?
Can I use points or tickets instead of money?
How many players can I enter?
Does ClubGG have a built-in deal feature?
Read next
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